After examining 3Q trends, Stefan Anninger, an analyst for Credit Suisse Group AG, projects the pay TV industry to lose 200,000 subscribers next year. While he said his prediction is "overweight," Anninger had previously forecast an industry gain of 250,000 subscribers, according to Hollywood Reporter.
Between 3Q 2010 and 3Q 2011, pay TV subscriptions have remained steady at 100.8 million, Anninger said, but "occupied households have grown by 1.25 million," meaning a penetration decline from 84.1% to 83.2%.
Anninger said that "the problem is that the longer the economy remains weak, and if over-the-top options improve, the harder it will be to bring these subs back to pay TV." He added that Millennials, "tomorrow's householders" who are growing up in an internet-based video culture, will not want to pay for TV and will seek alternatives.